Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, November 19th

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite early stock weakness. The major stock indexes are showing noticeable losses of 106 points in the Dow and 80 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (3.07%), but due to strength late Friday we should still see a slight improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates if comparing to Friday’s early pricing. If your lender improved pricing Friday afternoon, you may see a slight increase this morning.



30 yr - 3.07%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock




There is nothing scheduled for today that is expected to affect mortgage rates. The rest of this holiday-shortened week has five relevant economic reports for the markets to digest with four coming on a single day. All of them are being posted over just two days, partly due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Therefore, the middle days of the week should be the most interesting for mortgage shoppers.



Housing Starts (New Residential Construction)

The week’s calendar starts early tomorrow morning with the release of October's Housing Starts. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but usually does not have a noticeable impact on mortgage rates. I don't expect this month's version to be any different unless it varies greatly from analysts' forecasts. It is expected to show an increase in starts of new homes, meaning the new home portion of the housing sector strengthened a little last month.



Holiday Schedule

The financial markets will be closed Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. There will not be an early close Wednesday ahead of the holiday, but the stock and bond markets will close early Friday and will reopen next Monday morning. I suspect that Friday will be a very light day in bond trading as many market participants will be home. The same can be said to some degree Wednesday afternoon also.




Overall, I am expecting Wednesday to be the busiest day for the bond market and mortgage rates with four of the week's releases scheduled, including the most important of the five reports. The calmest day will most likely be Friday as many traders will be home for the long weekend rather than in the office working.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.